PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION SOCIETY OF AUSTRALIA

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www.prsa .org.au

2013-09-09

 

Extremes in Percentages of First Preference Vote for Elected Tasmanian MHAs at Polls since Hare-Clark Began in 1909

Source data by courtesy of the Tasmanian Electoral Commission

Compare the Hare-Clark pattern below with the pattern for Senate elections, which shows much less evenness in the spread of first preference votes among the elected candidates within a party column than does Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system. The much greater control parties exercise for Senate elections is because the Senate’s PR system inherited the pre-existing REGIMENTED system of voting created by the listing of candidates’ names in each party column on the ballot-paper in the order the party determines. The Senate system became even more REGIMENTED in 1983 by the introduction of GROUP VOTING TICKETS. Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system has never let parties set the order of candidates’ names on ballot-papers. Its Parliament chose Robson Rotation instead, in 1979.

Note that the only case since 1909 of any MHA gaining an absolute majority of first preferences votes was Douglas Lowe, in Franklin, in 1979.

 

 

 

Minimum Percentage of First Preference Votes

 

Maximum Percentage of First Preference Votes

Polling Day

Quota (%)

 

Bass

Braddon (Darwin until 1955)

Denison

Franklin

Lyons (Wilmot until 1984)

Mean of all 5 districts

Elected Candidate with Lowest percentage of First Preference Votes

 

Bass

Braddon (Darwin until 1955)

Denison

Franklin

Lyons (Wilmot until 1984)

Mean of all 5 districts

Elected Candidate with Highest
percentage
of First Preference Votes

 

 

 

 

 

Name

Order in Column on Ballot-paper

 

 

 

 

Name

Order in Column on Ballot-paper

2010-03-20

16.67
5.01
8.87

4.70

3.90 8.17 6.13

Jacquie Petrusma

Robson Rotation
24.98 17.40 16.21 31.70 14.13 20.88 Will
Hodgman

Robson Rotation

2006-03-18

16.67

 

9.30

8.73

9.36

10.51

6.01

8.78

Heather
Butler

Robson Rotation

 

23.30

24.43

18.42

26.06

21.19

22.68

Paul
Lennon

Robson Rotation

2002-07-20

16.67

 

9.10

7.44

2.57

9.17

7.03

7.06

Judy
Jackson

Robson Rotation

 

17.50

16.99

35.51

18.16

19.57

21.55

Jim
Bacon*

Robson Rotation

1998-08-29

16.67

 

8.49

5.54

5.00

5.40

7.11

6.31

Judy
Jackson

Robson Rotation

 

15.47

22.03

31.83

20.44

13.46

20.64

Jim
Bacon*

Robson Rotation

1996-02-04

12.50

 

5.62

4.39

6.47

5.59

3.55

5.12

Lara
Giddings

Robson Rotation

 

14.34

14.01

16.16

13.55

16.11

14.84

Ray
Groom*

Robson Rotation

1992-02-01

12.50

 

3.08

4.79

1.57

2.95

4.05

3.29

John
Barker

Robson Rotation

 

30.90

22.60

26.79

23.67

31.84

27.16

Robin
Gray*

Robson Rotation

1989-05-13

12.50

 

6.10

5.52

2.74

6.64

2.29

4.66

Graeme
Page

Robson Rotation

 

17.03

18.12

21.67

18.25

35.70

22.15

Robin
Gray*

Robson Rotation

1986-02-08

12.50

 

7.28

7.49

4.97

5.40

2.90

5.61

Graeme
Page

Robson Rotation

 

20.75

18.74

16.26

17.67

42.22

23.13

Robin
Gray*

Robson Rotation

1982-05-15

12.50

 

5.22

6.46

4.74

2.22

2.05

4.14

Stephen
Salter

Robson Rotation

 

24.12

14.55

24.33

25.77

32.27

24.21

Robin
Gray*

Robson Rotation

1980-02-16#

12.50

 

 

 

4.64

 

 

 

Robert Mather

Robson Rotation

 

 

 

17.77

 

 

17.77

Neil
Batt

Robson Rotation

1979-07-18

12.50

 

4.29

5.26

1.73

0.67

4.59

3.31

Dick
Adams

By lot:
2nd of 7

 

22.12

16.79

25.70

51.21

22.24

27.61

Douglas
Lowe*

By lot:
1st of 7

1976-12-11

12.50

 

6.61

6.67

1.01

5.32

3.12

4.55

Max 
Robinson

By lot:
2nd of 8

 

19.34

15.92

31.01

24.04

16.93

21.45

Sir Max Bingham QC

By lot 
1st of 8

1972-04-22

12.50

 

4.20

3.71

3.78

4.88

4.40

4.19

Sidney
Ward

Alphabetical: 8th of 8

 

18.73

35.40

23.89

19.11

15.30

22.49

Eric
Reece*

Alphabetical: 7th of 8

1969-05-10

12.50

 

5.57

3.55

4.12

3.68

3.56

4.10

Sidney
Ward

Alphabetical: 8th of 8

 

11.94

34.18

13.07

14.90

17.21

18.26

Eric
Reece*

Alphabetical: 7th of 8

1964-05-02

12.50

 

5.34

4.31

1.74

3.47

7.32

4.44

Horace
Strutt

Alphabetical: 6th of 7

 

11.71

34.70

26.81

21.46

16.65

22.27

Eric
Reece*

Alphabetical: 6th of 8

1959-05-02

12.50

 

4.53

3.35

3.24

6.36

8.60

5.22

William Hodgman

Alphabetical: 2nd of 6

 

27.93

30.41

25.12

13.75

17.16

22.88

Eric
Reece*

Alphabetical: 4th of 7

1956-10-13

14.29

 

8.95

7.03

2.89

5.94

7.97

6.55

Horace 
Strutt

Alphabetical: 5th of 6

 

14.53

17.45

26.51

17.01

15.28

18.16

Sir Robert Cosgrove*

Alphabetical: 6th of 6

1955-02-19

14.29

 

8.69

6.97

3.57

7.39

7.43

6.81

Horace 
Strutt

Alphabetical: 5th of 6

 

12.61

19.04

27.84

13.75

16.76

18.00

Reginald Townley

Alphabetical: 1st of 6

1950-05-05

14.29

 

8.36

6.55

1.19

7.51

6.04

5.93

Horace 
Strutt

Alphabetical: 5th of 6

 

12.46

16.48

31.84

11.98

19.39

18.43

Reginald Townley

Alphabetical: 6th of 6

1948-08-21

14.29

 

7.76

5.35

3.77

7.23

4.46

5.71

Henry
Hope

Alphabetical: 4th of 7

 

16.84

17.95

20.36

16.36

22.23

18.75

Neil Campbell

Alphabetical: 4th of 6

1946-11-23

14.29

 

5.79

4.21

3.63

5.38

4.76

4.76

Charles
Culley

Alphabetical: 2nd of 8

 

16.21

15.06

31.99

20.09

15.37

19.74

Reginald Townley

Alphabetical: 2nd of 2

1941-12-13

14.29

 

7.67

3.41

5.68

4.05

9.26

6.01

Henry
Lane

Alphabetical: 5th of 6

 

27.48

41.01

34.27

26.68

18.73

29.63

Thomas D'Alton

Alphabetical: 3rd of 6

§  For all the dates below, all candidates’ names were listed in a single column on the ballot-paper but, for the dates above, the names of the candidates of each parrty were listed in separate columns.

1937-02-20

14.29

 

5.89

6.72

7.90

3.79

7.19

6.30

Basil
Plummer

Alphabetical: 10th of 12

 

30.70

30.69

19.00

34.93

27.77

28.62

Albert Ogilvie KC*

Alphabetical: 7th of 12

1934-06-09

14.29

 

5.14

5.29

5.67

6.04

5.11

5.45

Donald Cameron

Alphabetical: 5th of 16

 

19.49

13.64

14.64

23.55

15.28

17.32

Albert Ogilvie KC*

Alphabetical: 8th of 12

1931-05-09

14.29

 

7.11

6.72

4.35

6.31

9.85

6.87

Sir John Soundy

Alphabetical: 15th of 19

 

14.55

23.67

21.49

18.88

16.06

18.93

Thomas
Butler

Alphabetical: 3rd of 13

1928-05-30

14.29

 

7.48

6.25

6.97

6.79

4.07

6.31

Eric Ogilvie

Alphabetical: 8th of 13

 

17.26

17.42

15.58

25.22

28.98

20.89

Joseph Lyons*

Alphabetical: 6th of 13

1925-06-03

14.29

 

6.91

8.56

7.25

5.18

2.10

6.00

William Shoobridge

Alphabetical: 14th of 14

 

21.47

17.63

11.94

28.16

30.59

21.96

Joseph Lyons*

Alphabetical: 7th of 14

1922-06-10

14.29

 

8.26

7.33

7.45

7.06

7.66

7.55

Peter Murdoch

Alphabetical:
8th of 16

 

13.85

18.66

13.98

13.60

17.71

15.56

James Ogden

Alphabetical:
8th of 12

1919-05-31

14.29

 

9.17

10.04

4.71

3.99

6.18

6.82

Benjamin Watkins

Alphabetical: 17th of 17

 

16.74

14.58

20.87

20.71

23.82

19.34

Sir Walter Lee*

Alphabetical: 5th of 11

1916-03-25

14.29

 

9.49

7.76

7.03

8.71

7.15

8.03

John Cleary

Alphabetical:
2nd of 9

 

19.69

19.28

19.58

25.71

21.72

21.20

John
Earle*

Alphabetical:
4th of 8

1913-01-23

14.29

 

8.00

10.30

8.44

5.85

8.01

8.12

David Dicker

Alphabetical: 3rd of 9

 

20.53

13.34

14.94

20.55

17.46

17.38

John
Earle*

Alphabetical: 4th of 9

1912-04-30

14.29

 

6.55

8.30

6.37

3.67

4.88

5.96

George Martin

Alphabetical: 10th of 11

 

18.46

14.81

16.46

21.92

17.29

17.79

John
Earle*

Alphabetical: 4th of 11

1909-04-30

14.29

 

6.34

12.07

7.04

7.85

8.96

8.45

Richard McKenzie

Alphabetical: 8th of 13

 

16.36

17.06

16.47

21.37

21.30

18.51

John
Earle*

Alphabetical: 3rd of 12

Mean

 

 

6.69

6.34

4.66

5.36

5.68

5.74

 

 

 

18.75

20.87

21.94

21.53

21.48

20.84

 

 

Extreme

 

 

3.08

3.35

1.01

0.67

2.05

 

Dick
Adams

By lot:
2nd of 7

 

30.90

41.01

34.27

51.21

42.22

 

Douglas
Lowe*

By lot:
1st of 7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Robson Rotation began at the 1980 Denison poll the Supreme Court ordered. It is, unfortunately, not yet used in Senate polls, but it has applied for Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly polls since 1992. Order in a column was alphabetical until 1976, and by lot for 1976 and 1979.

* Marks a sometime Tasmanian Premier.            # Marks the Denison by-election the Supreme Court ordered, declaring all 7 Denison seats vacant.

§ Until 1941 all candidates were in a single column. From 1941, party candidates were grouped, by mutual consent, in party columns designated by the name of the party, and all other candidates were in a single column at the far right of the ballot-paper designated as "Independents". The order, from left to right, of the columns across the ballot-paper has, since their introduction in 1941, continued to be determined by lot, and is not determined by Robson Rotation.