| PROPORTIONAL
REPRESENTATION ANALYSIS: |
| 2002
POLLS FOR 55TH LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY OF VICTORIA |
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| © 2002 Proportional
Representation Society of Australia: 18 Anita Street Beaumaris 3193
www.prsa.org.au |
| Tel 0395891802,
0429176725 Fax 0395891680
ggd@netspace.net.au
Final Data from www.vec.vic.gov.au |
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| SEATS |
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ALP |
GREEN |
OTHER |
NAT |
LIB |
TOTAL |
| HARE-CLARK
PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION SEATS |
45 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
30 |
88 |
| PRESENT
SINGLE-MEMBER "WINNER-TAKE-ALL" SEATS |
62 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
17 |
88 |
| FIRST
PREFERENCE VOTES |
1,392,574 |
282,531 |
135,730 |
108,781 |
984,926 |
2,904,542 |
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| PERCENTAGES |
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ALP |
GREEN |
OTHERS |
NAT |
LIB |
TOTAL |
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OF HARE-CLARK PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION SEATS |
51.14% |
9.09% |
2.27% |
3.41% |
34.09% |
100.00% |
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OF PRESENT SINGLE-MEMBER "WINNER-TAKE-ALL" SEATS |
70.45% |
0.00% |
2.27% |
7.95% |
19.32% |
100.00% |
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OF FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES |
47.94% |
9.73% |
4.67% |
3.75% |
33.91% |
100.00% |
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SUMMARY:
Under a Hare-Clark electoral system the ALP would have still gained an
absolute majority of seats, and would thus still be freed from its previous
limitation of being a minority Government. The Liberal Opposition would
have 76% more MLAs than the system of single-member districts has produced
for them. The distribution of the Opposition's MLAs among the twelve multi-member
groupings of existing Assembly districts is so sparse and skewed that a
third of those groupings have no Liberal MLA at all, whereas under Hare-Clark
PR all would have at least two Liberal MLAs, except for the North-west
Port Phillip grouping, which would have only one.
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The proportionality within
each multi-member district under Hare-Clark PR would result in the 9.1%
of Green first preferences translating into 9.7% of seats, and the unjust
over-representation of the Nationals being reduced from the "winner-take-all"
figure of 7.9% to that of 3.7%, which is still a generous result for a
first preference vote of 3.4%. The Nationals' three PR seats would give
them representation over two rural 7-member districts, which is a representational
status, parliamentary voice and presence over an area covering fourteen
present districts - double the number of the seven districts for
which they presently hold a monopoly of the representation. As a party
with a declining voter base, the future rate of decrease of their PR parliamentary
representation would approximate their rate of decline of votes better
than the precipitously falling rate that a winner-take-all system soon
produces, as the Liberal Party in the UK has found to its cost ever since
the 1920s.
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| The Government would have
a much smaller majority of seats, but it would be less vulnerable as a
result of seats becoming vacant, as Hare-Clark vacancies are filled not
by a by-election poll, but by a re-examination, by the Electoral Commission,
of the ballot-papers that formed the quota of votes that elected the vacating
candidate at the last General Election. |