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Tasmanian Election Results and Governments:
Proportionality and (Usually) Stable Government


Tasmania has used the Hare-Clark system for the election of its "lower" house of Parliament, the House of Assembly, since 1909. During all of that time, Tasmania has used the 5 federal electoral districts as the electorates for the House of Assembly. [The Legislative Council, on the other hand, has single-member electorates with markedly unequal enrolments.]

From 1909, each House of Assembly electorate returned 6 members, making a total of 30 - an even number, which produces the possibility of an evenly-divided House. From 1959 on, each electorate returned 7 members (total 35) making an even division impossible. For the last election in 1998 the number per electorate was reduced to 5, in an (almost-successful) effort by the major parties to eliminate the Greens, Democrats or independents.

One of the frequent criticisms of proportional representation is that it makes it easier for minor-party candidates to get elected, and therefore makes "hung" parliaments and minority governments more likely. We have therefore used bold figures in the table to show the occasions on which one party won a majority of the seats, and the ability to form a government in its own right.

As the table shows, where the number of members per electorate is even, and the total number of members is therefore even, a "hung" parliament is is indeed somewhat likely. As you can see, for 6 of the 17 parliaments elected this way one party won just 15 of the 30 seats, and in the last two elections under this system both Labor and the Liberals won 15 seats - not a recipe for stable or effective government! Even so, a one-party majority was elected at 10 of the 17 elections before 1959, and until 1948 the record was running at 10 out of 14.

However, since the number of members per electorate (and therefore, since there is an odd number of electorates, the total number) was made odd, a majority government has been formed after most elections. There have indeed been some occasions when Greens or Democrats held the balance of power, but as the Australian populace has become more disillusioned with the major parties minority governments have become more common even in States with single-member electorates.

The table, therefore, shows that PR produces representation in Parliament that is fairly closely proportional to the votes received by parties, and (as long as evenly-divided parliaments are not "invited" by having even numbers of members) produces stable governments and even majority governments no less often than the single-member electorates used in other States. [For a more detailed rebuttal of the allegation that PR promotes minority governments, see the Queensland Branch's submission to EARC on the electoral system.]

YEAR LABOR ANTI-LABOR OTHERReasons for stability or instability
votes
%
seats
no., %
votes
%
seats
no., %
votes
%
seats
no., %
1909 38.94 12, 40.00 60.30 18, 60.00 0.76 nil
1912 45.52 14, 46.67 54.48 16, 53.33 nil nil
1913 46.00 14, 46.67 52.58 16, 53.33 1.42 nil
1916 48.23 15, 50.00 48.47 14, 46.67 3.29 1, 3.33
1919 41.44 13, 43.33 55.20 16, 53.33 3.35 1, 3.33
1922 36.74 12, 40.00 54.93 17, 56.67 8.32 1, 3.33
1925 48.47 16, 53.33 39.36 11, 36.67 12.15 3, 10.00
1928 47.16 14, 46.67 42.20 15, 50.00 10.64 1, 3.33
1931 34.92 10, 33.33 56.40 19, 63.33 8.68 1, 3.33
1934 45.79 14, 46.67 46.72 13, 43.33 7.50 3, 10.00
1937 58.67 18, 60.00 38.86 12, 40.00 2.46 nil
1941 62.59 20, 66.67 36.58 10, 33.33 0.82 nil
1946 50.97 16, 53.33 34.25 12, 40.00 14.79 2,  6.67
1948 49.38 15, 50.00 37.84 12, 40.00 12.78 3, 10.00
1950 48.63 15, 50.00 47.57 14, 46.67 3.79 1, 3.33
1955 52.63 15, 50.00 45.35 15, 50.00 2.02 nil Liberals agreed to provide Speaker, in recognition of Labor's majority vote
1956 50.27 15, 50.00 43.61 15, 50.00 6.11 nil
[Changed from 6-member to 7-member electorates; total becomes 35 ]
1959 44.50 17, 48.57 41.06 16, 45.71 14.43 2, 5.71
1964 51.32 19, 54.29 38.49 16, 45.71 10.19 nil
1969 47.70 17, 48.57 43.98 17, 48.57 8.32 1, 2.86Liberal government supported by Kevin Lyons of the "Centre Party"
1972 54.93 21, 60.00 38.37 14, 40.00 6.70 nil
1976 52.48 18, 51.43 44.49 17, 48.57 3.03 nil
1979 54.32 20, 57.14 41.31 15, 42.86 4.37 nil
1982 36.86 14, 40.00 48.52 19, 54.29 14.62 2, 5.71
1986 35.14 14, 40.00 54.20 18, 54.29 10.67 2, 5.71
1989 34.71 13, 37.14 46.92 17, 48.57 18.37 5, 14.295 Greens agreed to support Labor government but then had a falling out - the only real case of "instability"
1992 28.85 11, 31.43 54.11 19, 54.29 17.04 5, 14.29
1996 40.47 14, 40.00 41.20 16, 45.71 18.33 5, 14.29
[Changed from 7 to 5 members per electorate; total becomes 25]
1998 44.79 14, 56.00 38.06 10, 40.00 17.15 1, 4.00


Table originally compiled by Ed Haber, Technical Adviser to the Proportional Representation Society. Extended and converted into html by John Pyke Feb 2000.