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QUOTA Newsletter of the
Proportional Representation Society of Australia QN2013A March 2013 www.prsa.org.au
Liberals gain strong
swing in Western Australia
In the
Legislative Council in 2008, each of the three
metropolitan regions elected three Liberal, two
Labor and one Greens MLC. The Mining and
Pastoral Region divided similarly, except two
Liberals and a National succeeded. However in
the Agricultural and South West Regions, the
Liberals and Nationals combined won five and
four of the six seats respectively to hold a
solid Council majority. Under amending legislation,
future elections would occur on the second
Saturday in March every four years, making for a
longer immediate term. After the major redistributions
of 2007 following passage of ‘one
vote one value’ legislation, minor boundary changes
this time affected only a small
number of seats noticeably. The Fremantle
by-election in May 2009, following ALP electoral reformer
Jim McGinty’s
resignation, resulted in a Greens victory, with
Adele Carles elected, but she became an
independent in 2010 after her affair with Troy
Buswell became widely known.
Elected as North West Labor MLA,
Vince Catania switched to
the Nationals in
July 2009. Opinion polls
generally had Labor first preference percentages
in the low 30s except for brief forays to 35% in
early 2010, following its change of leader in
January 2012, and about a month before polling
day. The small rise for Labor during 2013 left
it 2.7% below
its previous result, while the Liberal increase
of 8.7% was also offset by notable declines for
the Greens, Family First and independents of
3.5%, 1.4% and 1.4% respectively. Of the 291
candidates, four seats had just three, nineteen
apiece had four or five, eleven had six, and six
had seven. Greens nominated in all 59 seats,
Australian Christians in 41 and Family First in
16. With compulsory marking of all but one
preference, informal voting increased to 6.0%. The two
independent MLAs renominating attracted just 5%
and 10% of first preferences while three seats
vacated by long-serving Labor MLAs were among
the ten that changed hands. With an overall 5.4%
swing to the government, the Liberals emerged
with 31 seats (53%), and the Nationals 7 (12%),
including Pilbara where their leader, Brendon
Grylls, transferred and achieved an 18% swing,
despite his not living in the electorate. Three
National ministers
were in the new government, the same as
previously. Labor’s 21
seats (36%) included two with margins of 24 and
56 votes after attracting more than one-quarter
and roughly one-third of preferences from Family
First and Liberal candidates respectively.
Kimberley was held relatively easily after four
candidates started with 18-27% of first
preferences. Parties and independents that were
unsuccessful attracted 13.7% of first
preferences. Legislative
Council support levels followed within 0.5% of
those in the Assembly except for the
newly-formed Shooters and Fishers,
who stood only in Council contests, (1.8%);
Nationals and independents (both down 1.2%); and
Family First (up 0.8%). There were 41
nominations in the Agricultural Region, and
23-26 elsewhere. In metropolitan regions,
starting three times with around 0.6 quotas, the
Greens lost one place to each of the Liberals
and Labor. Australian
Christians, Family First and the Shooters and
Fishers tended to support each other on registered tickets,
allowing the highest-placed to challenge other
parties for the last position (or two in the
Mining and Pastoral Region) as a lengthy series
of exclusions occurred. Starting with
3.3%, the Shooters and Fishers succeeded in the
Agricultural Region,
obtaining significant boosts as the last Labor,
National and Greens candidates were excluded,
and from an initial 3.7% in the Mining and
Pastoral Region, they ended 153 votes short of a
quota. Two
countbacks from 2008 were
necessary to determine the replacements until 21
May for Nationals switching to become MLAs. Quite a few of
the registered group voting tickets included numbering that roamed
from column to column without being sequential
downwards within columns or otherwise
consistent. In such circumstances, it was
impossible to know in advance which candidate
would benefit most from particular ticket votes. The overall
result in non-metropolitan areas of seven
Liberals (38%), five Nationals (28%), four Labor
(22%) and one each for the Greens and Shooters
and Fishers was a major factor in the governing
parties doing much better (61% of seats, double
Labor’s) than indicated by overall statewide
support (52.5% first preferences, around 1.5
times Labor’s). Unless Labor can significantly
increase its votes in these areas, it faces a
lengthy period in a minority position in the
Legislative Council after having accepted
Greens’ demands that, in return for equalizing
Assembly enrolments in all but the five most
dispersed electorates, the six regions elect six
members each in place of the previous sevens and
fives.
Early
elections were
called in Malta after
the Nationalist Party’s (NP) budget was rejected
on 10 December 2012. One of its MPs,
who had earlier voted to dismiss a minister and
abstained in a no-confidence motion, joined with
the Malta Labour Party (MLP) to cause the
defeat, as he was unhappy about the awarding of
a bus transport contract to a German company.
Parliament was dissolved on 7 January 2013,
allowing longer for voting identification cards
to be prepared. Polling day was set for 9 March
2013. At the 2008 election,
MLP won 34 seats among the thirteen five-member
districts, using the single
transferable vote, despite receiving slightly
fewer votes (48.9%) than the Nationalists
(49.3%). Both parties secured majorities of
three to two in six districts. MLP prevailed in
the only district where there was a narrow
margin, and also again won four seats in its
consistently biggest stronghold. Consequently
under the revised constitutional provision of 2007,
four extra seats were created in order to give
the Nationalists a parliamentary majority in
keeping with their greater number of first
preferences. Four additional seats had been
automatically created for them in 1987, and to
Labour’s benefit in 1996, under the initial ‘majority rule’
constitutional guarantee of 1987. The Speaker
was chosen from outside the ranks of the elected
MPs. In power for
all but one brief term in the past twenty-five
years, the Nationalists were portrayed as
self-centred, in sharp contrast with a much
younger MLP leader, Dr Joseph Muscat, who
offered hope of major change. What ensued was a
swing of 6.0%, and the most decisive outcome
since the move to thirteen five-member districts
in 1976. Thirty-nine MLP candidates were successful,
compared with twenty-six Nationalists, in four
outcomes of four to one, five of three to two
and four of two to three. Majorities or margins
seldom changed
in particular districts in the past. The 268
nominations, between 12 and 25 in each district,
included 101 candidates contesting two seats.
With voting voluntary, there was again a very
high 93% turnout. Just 1.3% of the ballot-papers
were blank or otherwise informal, ranging from
1.0% to 1.8% in individual districts. A single
first preference suffices. Voters for the two
main parties rarely continue beyond their
preferred party’s candidates. Four bonus seats
were created to create an NP presence in
parliament roughly akin to its relativity in
first preferences. Outgoing Prime
Minister Lawrence Gonzi immediately stepped
aside from a leadership role, allowing an
internal convention to determine that in May.
The leaders of two small parties indicated that
they would cease that role. Five MLP and
six NP candidates were successful in both of the
electorates for which they nominated, so countbacks
were held on 28 March and 3 April 2013
respectively to determine how the seat they
declined would be filled. With two young NP
candidates now successful, and another two women
among its four highest initial losers, the
number of women elected increased to an all-time high
of ten. Three new parties in
the Israeli Government Early Israeli
elections were held on
22 January 2013, after it became clear a State
budget for 2013 would not be passed by the end
of December. Polls in 2012 seemed certain until
a last-minute decision in May by the largest
party, Kadima,
to join (very briefly, it turned out) the
Netanyahu Government. An adverse High Court ruling
prompted much effort being unsuccessfully
devoted to ending dispensations regarding
military duty or civilian service for those
choosing a life of religious study. Jockeying for
influence continued for months with the
formation, or creation through merger, of many
new parties and the disappearance of others.
Former television presenter Yair Lapid followed
in his father’s footsteps in forming a new
centrist secular party, Yesh Atid (There is a
Future), while a previous Prime Ministerial
adviser greatly increased prominence for the
nationalist The Jewish Home. Among those ousted
from party leadership in membership ballots,
former Kadima Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni left
the Knesset in May 2012, but returned to public
life in late November with the formation of
Hatnua (The Movement). The Prime
Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, formed an early
electoral alliance and joint list with Yisrael
Beteinu (Israel Our Home) to maximize his
prospects of being the first asked to try to
form the next government. In the hope of a
constituent party each time gaining an extra
seat from votes additional to the seats their
individual final ordinary d’Hondt
highest average divisor gave them, six other temporary
alliances were registered. A 2% threshold
applies nationally for parties to qualify for
seats. Votes for 20 unsuccessful parties
aggregated to 7.1%, and 1.1% of ballots were
blank or spoilt. The 67.8% turnout equalled the
best this century, but it was below turnouts in
earlier decades of near 80%. There appeared
to be little public inkling of a sizeable
centre-left shift in voter sentiment that
resulted in a reduction from 42 to just 31 seats
for Likud
Beteinu (23.3% support). Having picked up
respectively 19 and 12 seats on 14.3% and 9.1%
support, Yesh Atid and The Jewish Home indicated
that they would only go into government
together, and not if religious parties were
included. Labor,
recovering to 15 seats (11.4% support) after
campaigning vigorously on economic and social
justice, refused to contemplate being in
government. It had split after initially joining
the previous government. Former Prime Minister
Ehud Barak and four others remained as Independence. Mr Barak then surprisingly
stated he would not stand again. Other parties
won 11, 7, 6 (twice), 4 (twice), 3 and 2
(Kadima) seats. On 19 February,
Mr Netanyahu announced that Hatnua
(6 seats, 5.0% support) would be in the next
government and that, as Justice Minister, Ms
Livni would be in charge of any negotiations
with the Palestinians. Yesh
Atid and The
Jewish Home agreed to join the government
on 14 March.
© 2013 Proportional
Representation Society of Australia National President: Bogey Musidlak 14 Strzelecki Cr. NARRABUNDAH 2604 Editor, Quota Notes: Geoffrey Goode 18 Anita St. BEAUMARIS 3193 Tel: (02) 6295 8137, (03) 9589 1802 Mobile 04291 76725 quota@prsa.org.au |
